Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
